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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 20 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model