4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 38

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-D.Thomas to CLE 31 for 7 yards (22-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model