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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 24

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model