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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
48.7%
JAX
51.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Brian Hoyer (HOU): +0.183 EPA/dropback in prior starts (HOU starting Brian Hoyer in place of Ryan Mallett)
  • JAX offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney LB Out Ankle
Quintin Demps S Out Hamstring
Nate Washington WR Out Hamstring
Brian Peters LB Questionable Hamstring
Jaelen Strong WR Questionable Illness
Jared Crick DE Questionable Knee
Alfred Blue RB Questionable Toe
Oday Aboushi G Probable Toe
Lonnie Ballentine S Probable Knee
A.J. Bouye CB Probable Illness
Duane Brown T Probable Hand
Brian Cushing LB Probable Ankle
C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Probable Neck
Arian Foster RB Probable Groin
Jonathan Grimes RB Probable Hamstring
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Not Injury Related
Derek Newton T Probable Knee
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Akeem Dent LB Probable Hamstring
Cecil Shorts WR Probable Shoulder

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Hamstring
Bernard Pierce RB Out Concussion
James Sample S Doubtful Shoulder
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Groin
Blake Bortles QB Probable Shoulder
Luke Bowanko C Probable Neck
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Aaron Colvin CB Probable Shoulder
Allen Hurns WR Probable Ankle
Abry Jones DT Probable Knee
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Probable Knee
Jermey Parnell T Probable Knee
Paul Posluszny LB Probable Ankle
Denard Robinson RB Probable Knee
Julius Thomas TE Probable Hand
Sam Young T Probable Illness
Davon House CB Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 31
–
JAX 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:42 TD HOU (1:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 23-A.Foster for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 09:44 TD JAX (9:44) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 06:42 FG HOU (6:42) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 10 – JAX 7
  • Q3 00:10 TD JAX (:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 80-J.Thomas for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – JAX 13
  • Q4 11:27 TD HOU (11:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – JAX 14
  • Q4 08:12 TD HOU (8:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – JAX 14
  • Q4 08:02 TD HOU (8:02) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 80-J.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Hal at JAX 31. 29-A.Hal for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 30 – JAX 14
  • Q4 04:39 TD JAX (4:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 31 – JAX 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 19%

    (13:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 17%

    (10:09) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-12-T.Washington.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 21%

    (5:28) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to JAX 40 for 8 yards (31-D.House).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (6:42) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 13%

    (3:04) 19-B.Anger punts 36 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to HOU 45 for 7 yards (35-E.Pleasant). PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 45.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:24) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 55 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 25 for 11 yards (55-D.Skuta).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

    (9:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 16%

    (6:25) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 27%

    (1:42) 23-A.Foster right end to JAX 48 for -3 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:36) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-K.Mumphery to JAX 46 for 14 yards (55-D.Skuta; 59-R.Davis).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 51%

    (3:37) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end to HOU 28 for 12 yards (34-A.Bouye).