Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 85

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to HOU 45 for 7 yards (35-E.Pleasant). PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.39 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model