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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:24) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 55 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 25 for 11 yards (55-D.Skuta).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model