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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 43

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP