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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 45
Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(1:42) 23-A.Foster right end to JAX 48 for -3 yards (51-P.Posluszny).
The Three Options
GO
+1.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK
-1.50 EP
- 27% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
