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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-K.Mumphery to JAX 46 for 14 yards (55-D.Skuta; 59-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model