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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-12-T.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.06 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model