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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP