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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 36

Houston Texans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP