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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end to HOU 28 for 12 yards (34-A.Bouye).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model