Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 48
Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(5:28) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to JAX 40 for 8 yards (31-D.House).
The Three Options
GO
+0.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.42 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK
-2.05 EP
- 21% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT
-0.80 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
