Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to KC 41, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on KC-20-S.Nelson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.40 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model