KC @ MIN — 4th & Data

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HC Andy Reid

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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer

Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

41.7%

MIN

58.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Teddy Bridgewater (MIN): -0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
KC offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
MIN on 7 more days rest than KC
MIN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 19

–

MIN 23

Projected margin: MIN by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

KC

Joshua Mauga LB Out Groin

Dontari Poe DT Out Ankle

Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee

Jamell Fleming CB Probable Elbow

Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin

James O'Shaughnessy TE Probable Hand

Brian Parker TE Probable Finger

MIN

Justin Trattou DE Out Foot

Charles Johnson WR Questionable Rib

Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Knee

Jabari Price CB Probable Shoulder

Mike Wallace WR Probable Knee

Jarius Wright WR Probable Shoulder

Rhett Ellison TE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 10

–

MIN 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 05:44 FG MIN (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 0 – MIN 3
Q2 04:46 TD MIN (4:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – MIN 9
Q3 08:55 FG MIN (8:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 0 – MIN 13
Q4 13:15 FG KC (13:15) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – MIN 13
Q4 08:55 TD KC (8:55) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 12-A.Wilson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – MIN 13
Q4 04:51 FG MIN (4:51) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 10 – MIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 98

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:51) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to 50, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at KC 44 for 6 yards (39-H.Abdullah). PENALTY on MIN-99-D.Hunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44.
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

(5:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(1:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to MIN 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 17%

(14:13) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to KC 7, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 21 for 14 yards (35-M.Sherels).
Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(11:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to MIN 41, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 49 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander).
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 41%

(9:08) (Run formation) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to KC 39 for 3 yards (70-M.Devito).
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP

p(convert) 70%

(2:43) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(2:18) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to KC 41, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on KC-20-S.Nelson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 41.
Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 31%

(1:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to MIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.
Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%

(11:25) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 19 yards to MIN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 27

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%

(8:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 7

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

(4:34) 35-C.West up the middle to MIN 7 for no gain (73-S.Floyd).
Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:50) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to KC 33, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 43 for 10 yards (19-A.Thielen). Penalty on KC-84-D.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

(13:15) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

(4:51) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 44 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

(2:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(2:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Wilson. PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.