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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP