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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 7
Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13
What Actually Happened
(4:34) 35-C.West up the middle to MIN 7 for no gain (73-S.Floyd).
The Three Options
GO
+3.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.05 EP
KICK
+1.91 EP
- 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
