Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to KC 33, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 43 for 10 yards (19-A.Thielen). Penalty on KC-84-D.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model