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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 98

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to 50, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at KC 44 for 6 yards (39-H.Abdullah). PENALTY on MIN-99-D.Hunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44.

The Three Options

GO -4.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 98, worth -6.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -3.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model