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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model