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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Wilson. PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -1.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model