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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to KC 7, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 21 for 14 yards (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model