4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model