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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 20:30 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

NE
71.9%
IND
28.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Andrew Luck (IND) -0.044 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.350 EPA/dropback (IND starting Andrew Luck in place of Matt Hasselbeck)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • IND on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

NE 27
–
IND 21
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Tarell Brown CB Out Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ribs
Dion Lewis RB Questionable Abdomen

IND

Andrew Luck QB Questionable right Shoulder
Jerrell Freeman LB Questionable Groin
Nate Irving LB Questionable Knee
Trent Cole LB Probable Back
Bjoern Werner LB Probable Hamstring
Billy Winn DT Probable Eye
T.Y. Hilton WR Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 34
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:21 TD IND (7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 02:56 TD NE (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 13:53 FG NE (13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – IND 7
  • Q2 11:37 TD IND (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – IND 13
  • Q2 09:42 TD NE (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – IND 14
  • Q2 02:45 TD IND (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Easley]. NE 17 – IND 20
  • Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – IND 21
  • Q3 11:04 TD NE (11:04) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – IND 21
  • Q4 12:56 TD NE (12:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-L.Blount for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – IND 21
  • Q4 01:26 TD IND (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 17-G.Whalen for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 34 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:59) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to NE 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to IND 48 for 36 yards (32-C.Anderson). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%

    (13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 24%

    (11:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%

    (1:46) (Run formation) 11-J.Edelman right tackle to IND 34 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to NE 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:54) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to IND 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 19 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:08) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to IND 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 35 for 8 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-27-W.Guy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 29.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 32-C.Anderson up the middle to IND 36 for -1 yards (38-B.Bolden). Penalty on IND, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:37) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to NE 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to NE 43 for 11 yards (45-M.Overton). PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:34) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 36 yards to NE 41, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:19) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to IND 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 16 for 5 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:13) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 33 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-35-J.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.