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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 83

New England Patriots 27 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to IND 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 35 for 8 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-27-W.Guy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP