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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 32-C.Anderson up the middle to IND 36 for -1 yards (38-B.Bolden). Penalty on IND, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model