4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 63

New England Patriots 34 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP