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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 68

New England Patriots 34 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to IND 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 16 for 5 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model