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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 64

New England Patriots 34 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 33 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-35-J.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.91 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP