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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to NE 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to IND 48 for 36 yards (32-C.Anderson). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model