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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 85-A.Gates (33-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model