SD @ GB — 4th & Data

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Sunday 2015-10-18 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

31.6%

68.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts
GB defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
LAC offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 20

–

GB 27

Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SD

King Dunlap T Out Concussion

Craig Mager CB Out Hamstring

Darius Philon DE Out Hip

Chris Watt C Out Groin

Tourek Williams LB Out Foot

Steve Johnson WR Doubtful Hamstring

D.J. Fluker G Questionable Ankle

Manti Te'o LB Questionable Ankle

Orlando Franklin G Questionable Ankle

Chris Hairston T Questionable Ankle

Kyle Emanuel LB Probable Shoulder

GB

Nick Perry LB Doubtful Shoulder

B.J. Raji DT Doubtful Groin

Davante Adams WR Questionable Ankle

Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf

Ladarius Gunter CB Questionable Heel

Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder

Demetri Goodson CB Probable Hamstring

Jake Ryan LB Probable Hamstring

Bryan Bulaga T Probable Knee

James Jones WR Probable Hamstring

T.J. Lang G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 20

–

GB 27

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:44 TD GB (8:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 44-J.Starks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SD 0 – GB 6
Q1 03:21 FG LAC (3:21) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 3 – GB 7
Q1 02:03 TD GB (2:03) 44-J.Starks right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 3 – GB 13
Q2 06:51 FG GB (6:51) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SD 3 – GB 17
Q2 00:02 TD LAC (:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SD 9 – GB 17
Q3 09:29 TD LAC (9:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 89-L.Green for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 16 – GB 17
Q3 00:49 TD GB (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 89-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 17 – GB 23
Q4 11:14 FG LAC (11:14) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 20 – GB 24
Q4 02:41 FG GB (2:41) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SD 20 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 52%

(12:34) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to GB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 33-M.Hyde to GB 23 for 2 yards (25-D.Stuckey). PENALTY on GB-32-C.Banjo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23.
Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

(3:21) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 12

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

(10:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 85-A.Gates (33-M.Hyde).
Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

(6:51) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

(4:54) 8-T.Masthay punts 28 yards to LAC 12, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

(:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:44) 8-T.Masthay punts 38 yards to LAC 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-J.Jones to LAC 21 for -2 yards (32-C.Banjo).
Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP

p(convert) 73%

(8:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to LAC 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-J.Jones to LAC 16 for -5 yards (83-J.Janis).
Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 23%

(3:45) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to GB 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 33-M.Hyde to GB 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). LAC-5-M.Scifres was injured during the play.
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 14

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

(11:14) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(9:07) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.
Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

(6:22) 5-M.Scifres punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.
Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(2:41) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Woodhead (23-D.Randall) [56-J.Peppers].