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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to GB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 33-M.Hyde to GB 23 for 2 yards (25-D.Stuckey). PENALTY on GB-32-C.Banjo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.94 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP