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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +4.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model