4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 8-T.Masthay punts 38 yards to LAC 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-J.Jones to LAC 21 for -2 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model