4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP