Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

(9:07) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.91 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model