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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model