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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.40 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model