Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
New York Jets
4th & 6 at the 17
New York Jets 7 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(11:39) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
The Three Options
GO
+1.37 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP
KICK
+1.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
