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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

WAS
31.9%
NYJ
68.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.254 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYJ on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • Wind 16 mph
  • WAS defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
NYJ 25
Projected margin: NYJ by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

WAS

Chris Culliver CB Out Knee
DeAngelo Hall CB Out Toe
Kory Lichtensteiger C Out Shoulder, Finger
Jordan Reed TE Out Concussion
Trent Williams T Out Neck
Matt Jones RB Questionable Toe
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Hamstring
Stephen Paea DE Questionable Back
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Quadricep
Bashaud Breeland CB Probable Shoulder
Pierre Garcon WR Probable Knee
Kedric Golston DE Probable Hand
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Calf
Spencer Long G Probable Knee
Perry Riley LB Probable Calf
Chris Thompson RB Probable Shoulder

NYJ

Jaiquawn Jarrett S Doubtful Knee
Chris Owusu WR Doubtful Knee
Marcus Williams CB Doubtful Hamstring
Willie Colon G Questionable Knee
David Harris LB Questionable Quadricep
Bilal Powell RB Questionable Groin
Dion Bailey S Probable Elbow
Quinton Coples LB Probable Elbow
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Groin
Jeff Cumberland TE Probable Concussion
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Chris Ivory RB Probable Quadricep
Jamari Lattimore LB Probable Concussion
Calvin Pryor S Probable Knee
Darrin Walls CB Probable Hamstring
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Probable Ribs
Leonard Williams DE Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 TD WAS (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. WAS 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 03:32 TD NYJ (3:32) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 11:39 FG NYJ (11:39) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. WAS 7 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 02:22 FG WAS (2:22) 3-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 11:04 FG NYJ (11:04) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. WAS 13 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 10:10 TD NYJ (10:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NYJ 19
  • Q3 06:02 TD NYJ (6:02) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 15-B.Marshall for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NYJ 26
  • Q4 14:22 TD NYJ (14:22) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-34-T.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. WAS 13 – NYJ 33
  • Q4 04:04 TD WAS (4:04) 4-R.Quigley punt is BLOCKED by 20-J.Johnson, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by WAS-19-R.Ross at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – NYJ 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:29) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYJ 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (:38) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYJ 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (11:39) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:17) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 7 yards (53-J.Jeffcoat).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:48) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. Penalty on WAS-54-M.Foster, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:20) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NYJ 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-54-M.Foster.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%

    (2:22) 3-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%

    (11:04) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:00) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYJ 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 5 yards (20-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:55) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 49 for 22 yards (94-P.Smith).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (10:59) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

    (8:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYJ 18 for 18 yards (23-D.McDougle).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Crowder (23-D.McDougle).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:04) 4-R.Quigley punt is BLOCKED by 20-J.Johnson, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by WAS-19-R.Ross at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.