4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 78

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYJ 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.55 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 35, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP