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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 81

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NYJ 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-54-M.Foster.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model