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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 72

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYJ 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 5 yards (20-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model