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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 31

New York Jets 34 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model