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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 36

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(8:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYJ 18 for 18 yards (23-D.McDougle).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model