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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 94

New York Jets 34 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 4-R.Quigley punt is BLOCKED by 20-J.Johnson, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by WAS-19-R.Ross at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model