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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model