4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
66.6%
TEN
33.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Zach Mettenberger (TEN) -0.358 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.160 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Zach Mettenberger in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • ATL offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
TEN 19
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

ATL

Justin Durant LB Probable Elbow
Leonard Hankerson WR Probable Ribs
William Moore S Probable Hand
Mike Person C Probable Ankle
Eric Weems WR Probable Knee
Roddy White WR Probable Foot

TEN

Perrish Cox CB Out Hamstring
Harry Douglas WR Out Ribs
Marcus Mariota QB Out Knee
Michael Griffin S Questionable Knee
Sammie Lee Hill DT Questionable Knee
Dexter McCluster RB Probable Illness
Avery Williamson LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 10
–
TEN 7

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:49 TD TEN (8:49) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass deep middle to 13-K.Wright for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-70-C.Warmack, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 02:36 FG ATL (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – TEN 7
  • Q3 06:01 TD ATL (6:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – TEN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 18%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to TEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:15) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TEN 22, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 45%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones (30-J.McCourty).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to ATL 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to TEN 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 24%

    (10:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 22%

    (14:05) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to ATL 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-E.Weems to ATL 42 for 12 yards (57-J.Staples). TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (6:38) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 83-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (28-M.Huff) at TEN -4. Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Hunter.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 75%

    (2:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.