Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to ATL: Zach Mettenberger (TEN) -0.358 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.160 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Zach Mettenberger in place of Marcus Mariota)
- TEN offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- TEN defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- ATL on 3 more days rest than TEN
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
ATL
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 08:49 TD TEN (8:49) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass deep middle to 13-K.Wright for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-70-C.Warmack, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 0 – TEN 6
- Q2 02:36 FG ATL (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – TEN 7
- Q3 06:01 TD ATL (6:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – TEN 7
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%
(11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 18%
(7:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to TEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:15) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 63%
(4:33) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TEN 22, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 71%
(2:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 45%
(14:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones (30-J.McCourty).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%
(11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to ATL 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%
(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to TEN 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 24%
(10:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 22%
(14:05) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 62%
(11:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to ATL 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-E.Weems to ATL 42 for 12 yards (57-J.Staples). TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(6:38) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 83-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (28-M.Huff) at TEN -4. Touchback.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 63 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(3:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Hunter.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 75%
(2:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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